May 19, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber (12) is interviewed after the game against the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images Isaiah J. Downing
Kyle Schwarber launched his 300th career home run Monday night in the most Kyle Schwarber fashion possible — a 466-foot ninth-inning bomb that hit off the facing of the third deck at Coors Field, essentially icing a Phillies win over the lowly Colorado Rockies:
Kyle Schwarber’s 300th career homer was a bomb. 💣
(Via @TalkinBaseball_)
pic.twitter.com/R6kaF7fZGk
— On Pattison (@OnPattison) May 20, 2025
The homer left you to wonder how high Schwarber — one of this era's elite power hitters — can run up his home run total before his career concludes.
Typically, someone who hits 500 home runs in their career gets to 300 before their age-32 season, which Schwarber is currently in. Bryce Harper — long assumed to be someone who will eventually reach 500 home runs — hit his 300th home run in his age-30 season. Mike Schmidt hit his 300th home run in his age-31 campaign. Ditto for Jim Thome, who homered for the 300th time in 2002, his final season of his first stint in Cleveland.
But Thome might be an interesting comp for Schwarber. We're not suggesting that Schwarber is going to get to the 612 career homers that Thome got to. But Thome hit 160 home runs between his age-33 and age-37 seasons, and that's despite only playing in 59 games in an injury-shortened age-34 season as a member of the Phillies. Schwarber is currently on pace to hit over 50 home runs this season. Let's say he finishes just shy of that, and homers 45 times in 2024. That would mean he would finish his age-32 season with 329 career homers. If he then follows the Thome playbook of hitting 160 home runs over the next five seasons — which is ambitious but also builds in the possibility that he has a season where injuries limit him — he would be at 489 career home runs.
It's interesting to think about, because typically we associate power hitters with slowing down as they get towards their mid-30s. But Schwarber seems to be getting better, an assessment that his manager Rob Thomson agreed with earlier this month. His bat speed remains world class, he's become an elite hitter against left-handed pitching and the universal DH will likely give him a chance to extend his career that might not have existed a decade ago.
To be clear, aging like Thome is not something that's easy to do. There are plenty of relatively recent examples of prolific power hitters that aged well and still fell short of 500 home runs — Carlos Delgado (473), Nelson Cruz (464) and Edwin Encarnación (424) are among them. Schwarber could very well wind up in the 450-475 homer range, which is still something to be proud of.
But you just get the feeling watching Schwarber that he's not anywhere close to slowing down. And whether it's with the Phillies or another team, he's going to continue to mash homers at a clip that puts him within striking distance of 500 home runs over the next half decade.
