On Pattison Picks: Will Eagles defeat Commanders to earn a spot in the Super Bowl?

The Commanders visit Lincoln Financial Field on Sunday with an abundance of house money in their pockets. They're in the conference championship despite winning just four games last year. They weren't expected to make the playoffs this season, let alone defeat the Bucs and the mighty Lions on the road.

The Washington team hasn't lost since days before Thanksgiving. They've found a franchise quarterback in Jayden Daniels. And their season will be a success regardless of what happens on Sunday.

© Kimberly P. Mitchell | 2025 Jan 19

All the pressure, then, is on the Birds. After collapsing down the stretch last season, they rebounded with 14 regular season wins. They dispatched the Packers and Rams in these playoffs, and they rushed the ball at an historic rate all season long. Their defensive turnaround has been incredible. They are at home and they are favored by 6.5 points.

But an Eagles loss Sunday would set up an off-season full of questions and finger-pointing. The team's stated philosophy--win by any means necessary and screw what people think--and Jalen Hurts' claim that "just because we don't doesn't mean we can't" when it comes to the passing attack would both ring hollow if the underdog Commanders leave Philly with a win.

The stakes couldn't be higher. Here's what the On Pattison staffers think will happen when the teams meet:

Tim Kelly

Score: Eagles 30 - Commanders 23

MVP: Saquon Barkley

Jayden Daniels is the greatest rookie quarterback of all time, and anyone that tells you that he's being overhyped or anything like that doesn't know what they're talking about.

With that said, I think it's fair to say that the Commanders have more than overachieved in getting to the NFC Championship Game given where their roster is at. I wouldn't underestimate them because they clearly have some magic right now, but they to me are still a draft or two away from being a team that plays in the Super Bowl.

For example, they ranked 30th in rushing yards allowed to opposing teams during the season at 2,337. Saquon Barkley accounted for 296 of those yards across two matchups, and I just don't believe they will have enough of an answer to slow down one of the greatest runs a running back has ever had.

With that said, Jalen Hurts needs to show that he's healthy and locked back in for the Eagles to both win this game, and certainly to have a chance against Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the Super Bowl.

“I think he has had a really good week of practice”

Nick Sirianni on Jalen Hurts this week dealing with his left knee injury. Here is Jalen heading to practice. pic.twitter.com/MJzZyUNuQT

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) January 24, 2025

Anthony SanFilippo

Score: Eagles 27 - Commanders 23

MVP: Jalen Carter

I haven't been comfortable picking Eagles games all season, so why should that be any different now?

Am I concerned about Jalen Hurts' production in the passing game? Yes. Am I concerned about his knee? Yes. Am I concerned that the Rams - other than on two huge runs - provided a blueprint to at least slow down Saquon Barkley enough to force others in the Eagles offense to beat you? Yes. The NFL has always been a copycat league, and Washington has struggled to stop a lot of teams this season - including the Eagles twice, so it wouldn't surprise if they tried to take some pages out of other teams' playbooks. 

That said, the Commanders defense is the weakest unit that will be on the field, and the Eagles offense should still move the ball enough to win. The game really comes down to the Eagles No. 1 defense against the best rookie quarterback this league has ever seen. Jayden Daniels is one of the best quarterbacks in the game already, and it wouldn't surprise if in two years he's being discussed as the best in the entire sport. But, the Eagles did force Washington into five turnovers the last time they played, and even though Washington won that game, they can't have something similar happen in a conference championship and expect to win again. 

With Washington RG Sam Cosmi tearing his ACL against Detroit last week, that becomes the Achilles' heel for the Commanders offense, especially with Jalen Carter lined up on the other side of whoever Cosmi's replacement is. Washington will have to provide constant help, which takes an option away from Daniels. And as talented as he is, the fewer options, the tougher the task. And that one thing - trying to prevent Carter from being the disruptive, game-wrecker he is, could be just enough for the Eagles to sweat it out and go to their third Super Bowl in eight years.

Jalen Carter was in awe when I told him what Aaron Donald said about him: pic.twitter.com/V7b5f4QXpf

— Jason Dumas (@JDumasReports) January 24, 2025

John Foley

Score: Eagles 31 - Commanders 24

MVP: Saquon Barkley

Jayden Daniels deserves every bit of praise he received this season. But I think the Commanders run out of magic in this one.

The Commanders need Daniels to be superhuman to win this game. And yes, of course it could happen. But would you rather be the team that needs your quarterback to go ballistic, or the team that can reliably run the rock and play great defense?

Saquon Barkley against the Commanders' run defense is a tremendous mismatch. And the Commies can't simply trade offensive punches the way they did against the Lions, because the Eagles' defense won't allow it. Oh, and if Washington does somehow manage to stop Barkley and turn the game into an aerial shootout? A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and the rest of the Eagles' passing attack are likely bursting at the seams to remind the league of what they can do.

I'll even give you an intangible. After playing in last week's wild weather against the Rams, everything the Eagles do on the field this Sunday is going to seem ten times easier. 39 degrees might be cold to the Commanders, but it's going to feel downright balmy for the Birds.

If there's snow, make snow angels.
That's the rule! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ pic.twitter.com/xIZlR70MD3

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) January 19, 2025

Austin Krell

Score: Eagles 28 - Commanders 17

MVP: Saquon Barkley

Ride the coat tails to the Super Bowl, baby. And shout out to the national media for not being able to simply say “Hey, uh, the Eagles are pretty good."

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