FanGraphs says Phillies have 90% odds to win NL East

The Phillies will enter play Monday with a 5 1/2 game lead over the New York Mets in the NL East, with FanGraphs now estimating that they have 90% odds to repeat as NL East Champions.

This comes after a weekend where the Phillies swept the Texas Rangers in Arlington, while the Mets were swept out of Milwaukee, with Brewers' left fielder Isaac Collins hitting a walk-off home run off of Edwin Díaz Sunday: 

ISAAC COLLINS #WALKOFF HOMER!
NINE STRAIGHT @BREWERS WINS!

SOMETHING SPECIAL IS BREWING IN MILWAUKEE! pic.twitter.com/SzCiqFZmmj

— MLB (@MLB) August 10, 2025

While the Phillies have a 7-2 record since acquiring Jhoan Duran and Harrison Bader in advance of the trade deadline, the Mets are 1-8 in August, including losing seven straight games. The Mets are off Monday, but if the Phillies are victorious in Cincinnati this evening, New York will return to play Tuesday six games back in the NL East. 

Beyond Duran changing the complexion of the bullpen and Bader robbing a home run Sunday, the Phillies have seen some positive internal developments in recent days. Brandon Marsh has a 1.003 OPS since the All-Star Break. After hitting .194 in July, Bryson Stott is hitting .421 in August. A rehabbing Alec Bohm could soon rejoin the team. If those three — whom Bryce Harper said on Opening Day are no longer "the Daycare" — turn the corner, it will change the outlook on a lineup that's felt overly reliant on Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner this season. 

The Phillies probably aren't going to stay this hot for the rest of the regular season, nor will the Mets be this cold. But where it seemed to be a toss-up as far as who would win the NL East 10 days ago, the Phillies have now clearly taken command. 

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