Earlier this week, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote this of how the Phillies may proceed at third base if they trade Alec Bohm:
"If the Phillies trade Bohm, they are expected to make a strong play for Alex Bregman, whose talent and personality would fit in perfectly with the team, or perhaps sign Willy Adames and move him over to third base."
It's not entirely career if this was a report, informed speculation or some combination of the two. Quite a few outlets ran some variation of "Phillies interested in Bregman and Adames," so it's worth addressing regardless.
Bregman's free agency is fairly clear cut. After nine seasons with the Houston Astros, he's a free agent for the first time in his career. He's not the offensive superstar he was from 2018-2019, when he posted a .970 OPS. Over the last three seasons, though, Bregman has posted a .798 OPS, so he's still a very valuable contributor. He also just won his first Gold Glove Award, coming off a season where he posted six defensive runs saved and six outs above average. And whatever you think of the Astros, he's a two-time World Series Champion, who has 19 career playoff home runs, the sixth-most in MLB history.
Adames is less of a household name nationally, but arguably just as attractive of a free agent. His .757 OPS over the last three seasons isn't as high as Bregman. But he has 87 home runs and 290 runs for the Milwaukee Brewers over that period, as opposed to 74 home runs and 266 RBIs from Bregman. The big advantage that Adames has over Bregman is he's younger, as he'll play next season at 29, as opposed to 31 for Bregman. And while Adames doesn't have the same postseason resume as Bregman, he's played in the postseason in five different years, including as a member of the 2020 Tampa Bay Rays, who reached the World Series.
Willy Adames launches one 435 feet to put the @Brewers ahead! ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/xwjsRu1I7D
Of course, Adames is a natural shortstop. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said in his end-of-season press conference that the Phillies remain committed to Trea Turner as their starting shortstop in 2025, despite declining defensive metrics. Aidan Miller and Starlyn Caba, two of the organization's top prospects, are also natural shortstops. So Adames is really only in play for the Phillies if he's willing to move to third base.
A year ago, it would have been unthinkable for Adames to move off of shortstop. Between 2022 and 2023, Adames was one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball, posting 17 defensive runs saved and 26 outs above average over that two-year period. Rather inexplicably, he fell off a cliff defensively in his contract year, posting -16 defensive runs saved and zero outs above average. That's obviously led to questions about how he'll age defensively, with Will Sammon and Katie Woo of The Athletic going as far as saying "Adames wants to stay at shortstop but would be willing to play a different position if he gets a strong offer from a team in position to win."
Obviously, what contracts each player is going to command plays a factor in this. Adames is younger, but that may also mean he gets a longer commitment. In my contract predictions over on Bleacher Report, here's what I projected for each player.
Bregman: Five years, $130 million with $26 million club option for 2030
Adames: Seven years, $180 million
However, it should be noted, my prediction for Bregman is on the lower end. MLB Trade Rumors actually has predicted a longer deal for Bregman than Adames, despite the former being older than the latter.
Bregman: Seven years, $182 million
Adames: Six years, $160 million
The other thing to consider here is that both Bregman and Adames received and declined qualifying offers from their respective clubs. So for the Phillies to sign either one, not only would they have to ink them to a major deal, but they would also surrender their second and fifth-round picks in the 2025 MLB Draft, along with $1 million in international bonus pool money. While the Phillies didn't sign a qualified free agent last offseason, it was the first time in years they didn't. Continuously limiting the amount of draft picks and international bonus pool money you have absolutely hampers your ability to develop talent.
Alex Bregman walk-off to MARS pic.twitter.com/hsrhKGST70
It should be pointed out that A) the Phillies could still decide to keep Bohm and B) even if they trade Bohm, there are other options to consider at third base that would be smaller monetary commitments and wouldn't require giving up draft compensation. The Phillies could work out a trade with the St. Louis Cardinals for the three remaining years of Nolan Arenado's contract. They could sign Ha-Seong Kim, who didn't receive a qualifying offer from the San Diego Padres. There are other options to consider here.
None of the other options, though, are likely to provide the same impact that signing Bregman or Adames would. If Adames is willing to play third base, he might be the better long-term investment, particularly if both are signing for the same amount of years. But as far the 2025 Phillies are concerned, Bregman has never struck out more than 97 times in a season. Adames may provide more thump from, but he also struck out 173 times in 2024. Add in Bregman's postseason history, and he may fit the Phillies better, particularly if this is about maximizing the next couple of seasons.
